您的当前位置:首页 > 白银TD > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-06-27 05:35:02 来源:网络整理 编辑:白银TD
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
比特币刚开始市值多少-比特币刚开始市值多少钱2025-06-27 08:08
软件企业退税有哪些条件2025-06-27 07:55
Uniswap基金会公布2025年Q1财务摘要,持有近亿美元资产2025-06-27 07:45
比特币和以太坊 ETF 单日增值超过 10 亿美元2025-06-27 07:31
虚拟货币领域职务犯罪典型案例曝光2025-06-27 07:30
比特币图表显示“逢低买入”信号,推动看涨情绪升温2025-06-27 07:13
USD Coin (USDC) 哪里可以买?推荐欧易、币安、火必三大交易平台!2025-06-27 06:48
观点:比特币 Layer2 要凉?2025-06-27 05:59
华商股票基金-华商股票基金代码查询2025-06-27 05:54
Mancium (MANC)哪里可以买?Mancium (MANC)在哪些交易平台买?2025-06-27 05:53
城市基础设施配套费会计分录是什么2025-06-27 08:14
莱特币即时行情-莱特币即时行情最新消息2025-06-27 08:07
阿尔法币交易平台2025-06-27 08:01
比特币今日行情中国2025-06-27 07:59
特朗普呼吁对欧盟征收50%关税,比特币短暂跌破10.9万美元后迅速反弹2025-06-27 07:27
比特币行情看盘2025-06-27 07:10
特朗普表情包币晚宴引发争议:吸引亿万富翁与名人,却遭猛烈批评2025-06-27 06:53
企业购进电脑奖励员工是否视同销售2025-06-27 06:37
btm比原链行情2025-06-27 06:18
TT数字货币行情-tt数字货币行情怎么样2025-06-27 05:59