您的当前位置:首页 > 宏观研究 > Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut 正文
时间:2025-06-13 06:21:59 来源:网络整理 编辑:宏观研究
ArthurHayes,ChiefInvestmentOfficerofMaelstromandco-founderofBitMEX,statedattheToken2049conferenceinS
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
BIAN 交易平台合法吗?Bianacb 交易平台的趋势如何?2025-06-13 07:07
硬件钱包ledger-硬件钱包ledger怎么买2025-06-13 06:59
消费贷款如何操作才能成功提现呢?2025-06-13 06:48
中国如何发展区块链2025-06-13 06:43
太平洋产险是什么?具体含义和保障范围是什么?2025-06-13 06:12
ok交易平台usdt汇率appV4.022025-06-13 05:41
meme币app下载安卓 meme币最新版官网app2025-06-13 05:13
瑞波钱包教-瑞波 钱包2025-06-13 04:58
滨海新区概念31日主力净流出4540.1万元,天津普林、达仁堂居前2025-06-13 04:49
自身权益工具结算是什么意思2025-06-13 04:41
首次购入税控设备会计分录怎么做2025-06-13 07:02
冷链物流概念31日主力净流出17.14亿元,常山北明、三花智控居前2025-06-13 06:40
数字货币交易app排名榜 数字货币交易app哪个平台好2025-06-13 06:12
纳川股份:全资子公司临时停业停产2025-06-13 05:42
增发股票案例2025-06-13 05:16
四川金顶收盘涨7.5%,主力资金净流入7405.9万元2025-06-13 05:06
Renowned trader Anselm switching from playing fan fiction to promoting Sonic (formerly Fantom)? AC and Monad team members have an online dispute2025-06-13 05:01
SOL价格下跌但网络活动反映出实力2025-06-13 04:49
The Open Art:与Blum、TONX和TON Society共度Token2049创新之夜,已超7千名参与者2025-06-13 04:47
斯迪克收盘涨12.41%,主力资金净流入4603.34万元2025-06-13 04:32